A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but each side has got something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
